DARPA program aims to sift through quantum computing hype

The government’s central research and development arm, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), is setting up an industry initiative to benchmark quantum computing applications and algorithms in an effort to dispel some of the hype around the technology.

The Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) aims to validate the progress of quantum computer hardware and determine if it’s possible to build an industrially useful quantum computer faster than current predictions – which forecast serious quantum adoption is well over 10 years away. 

While it’s early in the game, interest in quantum computing and the networks it will require are growing. According to a June report by quantum industry analyst firm IQT research, the worldwide market for quantum networks will near $1.5 billion in 2027 and grow to more than $8 billion by 2031. Quantum key distribution (QKD) will be the main revenue driver, followed by a rise in networks that use emerging quantum repeaters to connect quantum computers and quantum sensor networks, the research firm predicts.

Research firm IDC is forecasting that customer spend for quantum computing will grow from $1.1 billion in 2022 to $7.6 billion in 2027. This represents a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48.1%.

IDC’s latest forecast is considerably lower than its previous quantum computing forecast. According to IDC, customer spend for quantum computing has been negatively impacted by several factors, including: slower than expected advances in quantum hardware development, which have delayed potential return on investment; the emergence of other technologies such as generative AI, which are expected to offer greater near-term value for end users; and an array of macroeconomic factors, such as higher interest and inflation rates and the prospect of an economic recession.

IDC expects the quantum computing market will continue to experience slower growth until a major quantum hardware development that leads to a quantum advantage is announced, the research outfit stated.

According to DARPA, the QBI program will verify and validate approaches that enable revolutionary advances in design, engineering, testing, and evaluation in the domain of fault-tolerant quantum computing and explore computational workflows that include quantum compute steps.

“Our opening position is skepticism,” stated Dr. Joe Altepeter, the DARPA program manager of the project, in a blog about QBI. “Specifically, skepticism that a fully fault-tolerant quantum computer with a sufficient number of logical qubits can ever be built.”

“We will walk into the room and say, ‘We’re pretty sure whatever you’re doing is not going to work.’ I will bring a small army of scientists and engineers, we will listen to your evidence, and we will double and triple check using our own analysis,” Altepeter wrote. “And if we’re convinced the technology you’re developing checks out and you’re onto something big, we’ll tell the rest of government and become a strong advocate for your approach.”

Proving (or disproving) the promise of quantum computing will require a broad research and development collaboration across industry, academia, and government, Altepeter stated. A range of investments required include workforce development, infrastructure, and verification and validation expertise, Altepeter stated.

To that end, QBI will incorporate input from outside organizations, including the Department of Energy’s Office of Science, the Air Force Research Laboratory, and the State of Illinois, which is building a quantum computing corridor in the greater Chicago area. DARPA expects other quantum leaders in the industry will want to be a part of QBI as well. 

DARPA already has a number of other quantum development programs and works with a variety of commercial entities to develop quantum networking and computing. In 2023, for its Underexplored Systems for Utility-Scale Quantum Computing program, it signed up Atom Computing, Microsoft Corporation and PsiQuantum to build quantum systems, for example.

IBM, Google, Intel and other heavy hitters are also deeply involved in bringing quantum to the masses. For example, in December Big Blue unveiled a modular quantum system called IBM Quantum System Two that ties together IBM’s new Quantum Heron processors and a package of error-correcting software and tools. The combined technologies will provide the core components for large quantum computers for the next 10 years, IBM stated.

Read more about quantum computing:

• Error-correction breakthroughs bring quantum computing a step closer
• What is quantum computing good for? XPRIZE and Google offer cash for answers
• Microsoft claims quantum computing breakthrough, customers to benefit soon
• IBM advances its quantum roadmap as competition heats up
• PSiQuantum to build first utility-scale quantum computer in Australia